There is a “heat in the car†in the country. Because electric cars have lowered the threshold for building cars?
There are four major trends in the automotive industry today: electric vehicles , sharing economy, car networking and autonomous driving. Compared to electric vehicles and the sharing economy, car networking and autonomous driving are still in the research and development stage of some auto companies and technology companies. Even if Tesla has always claimed that it can realize unmanned Autopilot technology, it is just a kind of Advanced driver assistance system only.
However, electric vehicles and the sharing economy have entered the stage of practical application, especially electric vehicles, which have appeared in the world like springing up. For example, the new energy vehicle brands that are popular on the Internet and in the media are Jia Yueting's LeTV, Li Bin's Weilai Auto, former Infiniti General Manager Dai Lei's FMC, and former Volvo China Chairman Shen Hui's Weimar Automobile. Fu Qiang's love and relaxation, and so on. The founders of these companies are either Internet giants or the automotive industry, and their new energy projects are relatively recognized by the industry and are well known by the industry.
In addition to these more famous new energy brands, how many new energy auto brands are created in China and abroad?
Hou Yanqi, head of research at UBS's Asian automotive industry, told reporters: "In the past year, among the people I know, there are more than 20 automobile companies in Shanghai. In the United States, Tesla is leading, but in Silicon Valley. There are more than twenty companies that make cars. This has not been in the past 100 years of history.†For this question, Hou’s supervisor does not know how to answer this question, but from this we can also find that the current brand of new energy vehicles is being created. The manufacture of electric vehicles has become a boom, even a "great leap forward".
At this time, another issue was placed in front of the public. After the formation of several major industry giants in the global auto market and the large-scale establishment of private brands in the Chinese market, why did it form a new wave in such a short period of time? Car sports"? The industry's view is simple, because electric vehicle technology has lowered the technology of making cars.
Pulling down the threshold of "making cars"
Everyone in the industry knows that the most valuable and technically complex part of a vehicle is the powertrain, the engine and its matching gearbox. Hou Yanxi told reporters: "The engine and speed change in the car, the cost of research and development of these two things is about 2 billion US dollars. In the past, a car company did not do 2 million units, it will not survive, because you have to amortize this 2 billion The cost of the dollar is $1,000 in research and development costs per car. Even so, the car you develop will have a risk of failure in the market."
However, electric vehicles no longer need to carry out pre-development of such expensive components for the engine and transmission, and all components including “three electric†(battery, motor, electric control) can be obtained by purchase, which is greatly Reduced barriers to entry in the automotive industry.
Moreover, electric vehicle technology is actually not complicated. Batteries and electric motors have been developed in the past 100 years. However, because the past oil prices are too cheap and the battery energy density is not high, the practicality of electric vehicles is relatively low. Most electric vehicles are used. Appear in special occasions as a special car. With the improvement of the "three electricity" technology, the practicality of electric vehicles has increased.
In addition, the reduction in battery cost has greatly contributed to the development of the electric vehicle market. Hou Yanxi told reporters: "According to the present, first of all, the battery accounts for about one-third of the cost of manufacturing electric vehicles . This cost has fallen by half in the past five years. This is also a very rare thing because of various scale effects and A variety of technologies have been broken, falling by half in the past five years."
Jiang Bing, deputy general manager of State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Company, said at the 2017 China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum: "We analyzed the trend of battery prices in the past and found a rule. At this stage, the battery price will drop by half every five years. We think The price of batteries will fall by half in 2020."
If the battery cost is calculated by 5%-10% per year in the future, then, "by 2025, electric vehicles can become as cheap as ordinary fuel vehicles." UBS research results show.
The possibility of mass popularization
In fact, even if the electric vehicle technology is very mature, very environmentally friendly, and the mileage is long enough, many consumers still do not accept electric vehicles. The reason is that many consumers have “mileage anxiety†mentally, worrying that the car is running out of power, or that the car can't find a charging pile when the car is going to be out of power.
However, Toyota's survey in the United States shows that 70% of the US cars have never traveled more than 300 kilometers a day during their life cycle. That is, the majority of pure electric vehicles do not need to rely on public charging facilities, and go home to charge every day.
Of course, this is the result of a survey in the US market. American families usually have more than 2 models, so as a second car, 70% of the cars will have a driving life of no more than 300 kilometers per day. Case. Putting it in the Chinese market may not reach the level of the United States, but at least it shows that with the economic development, electric vehicles have the possibility of mass popularization.
In addition, the mileage of electric vehicles will be greatly improved, solving the problem of “mileage anxiety†of consumers. Shen Hui, former vice president of Geely Automobile and now chairman of Wei Ma Automobile, said in an interview: "I believe that electric vehicles with a cruising range of less than 250 kilometers will be eliminated. By 2019, charging will be 15 minutes. Driving 400 kilometers is not a slogan. By 2019, whether it is charging facilities, fast charging, and a variety of flexible services, it will help electric car users get a true 400 km cruising range service."
Similarly, Li Bin, chairman of Weilai Automobile, once told reporters: "My electric car will definitely defeat the fuel car in terms of refueling experience." However, no one has disclosed specific information on business models and charging technology.
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