Zeng Jun: The Twelfth Five-Year Plan will bring great changes to China
The "12th Five-Year Plan" period is an important five-year change in the world economy and China's economy. The global economic development will undergo a major transformation. For a period of time in the future, the global economy may enter a period of comprehensive transformation. The development of the world economy will enter the stage of “structural rebalancing†and “new industrial revolutionâ€. First of all, the global economy will be in a period of gradual transition from imbalance to rebalancing. The demand structure of the international market will be faced with in-depth adjustments. Second, the global economy will be in a period of dramatic change from industrial globalization to industrial deglobalization. Global industries The pattern will face fierce competition and reshuffle.
For China, the "12th Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for economic transformation. Economic development will enter the stage of "optimization of structural adjustment" and "industrial upgrading and innovation." First of all, China's economy will be in a transition period from internal and external imbalances to internal and external balances. The internal and external demand structure will face tremendous changes. Second, China's economy will be in a transition period from a low-cost industrial stage to a high-value-added industrial stage. The overall industrial structure Will face an overall adjustment.
How to Understand the Policy Logic behind the Twelfth Five-Year Plan The main line of China's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will be “Accelerating the transformation of economic development methodsâ€, and the concrete embodiment of this main line during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period is to speed up the economic structure. Strategic adjustment. At the same time, scientific and technological advancement and innovation, safeguarding and improving people's livelihood, building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, and further deepening reforms and transforming open methods will become the four major tasks of economic restructuring.
From the perspective of economic development, there are two key points in China's economic restructuring during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. First of all, China will accelerate the transformation of demand, manifesting itself as a shift in the demand structure, focusing on expanding consumer demand. Within the consumer demand, the rate of decline in household consumption is the fastest, so the adjustment of demand structure will focus on expanding consumer spending. The policy of expanding household consumption will hold two “handsâ€, one is to promote “urbanization†and the other is to adjust the “national income distribution patternâ€. Secondly. It is the transformation of supply that is reflected in the adjustment of the industrial structure. China's industrial structure lags behind in two aspects. One is the emphasis on processing and manufacturing, the imbalance in industrial structure, and the slow development of the modern service industry; the second is that the innovation capability is not strong, the industrial added value is low, and it is difficult to control the global value chain. In this sense, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China’s industrial structure upgrading strategy will begin with the promotion of industrialization and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries.
From the perspective of system reform, during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, with the completion of the "incremental reform", the curtain of China's "stock reform" is about to start. The essence of this is to solve the reform of the overall economic system in an all-round way." The economic stock is unreasonable." Starting from the different aspects of the task of economic restructuring, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, China will regard “creating domestic demand†and “optimizing supply†as two wheels for “stock reformâ€. From the perspective of adjusting the demand structure, two reforms will be focused on: First, deepen the reform of the income distribution system, increase the proportion of workers’ remuneration in initial distribution, increase the proportion of residents’ income in the distribution of national income, and release the medium and low Income class consumer demand. The second is to deepen the reform of the household registration system, speed up the process of converting migrant workers into citizens, deepen the process of urbanization, adjust the dual structure of urban and rural areas, and start the “bipolar†consumer impulse in both urban and rural areas. From the perspective of optimizing the supply structure, we must accelerate two reforms: First, speed up the reform of the monopoly service industry, accelerate the pace of reform in the monopoly industry, increase the introduction of private investment, improve efficiency, and optimize the industrial structure. The adjusted market environment; Second, the reform of the factor price system, especially the resource price system, makes resource prices reflect the degree of resource scarcity, changes the "low-cost" industrial development model, and promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. In addition, the premise of all reforms is the transformation of the government, there is no breakthrough in the transformation of the government, the reform is difficult to deepen, the economic structure is difficult to adjust, and the development method is difficult to change. Therefore, during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the most important aspect of China's reform is to promote the government's transformation from economic construction to public service.
How the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†Will Change China’s Economic Prospects The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will become an important strategic document for China’s economic and social transformation in the history of reform and opening up, and it will be the theme for China’s future development and reform. This plan involves a wide range of transformation strategies and reform measures, which may affect many aspects of China's economic and social development, and thus have a major impact on the overall layout of China's future development. In the next five or ten years, under the direct and indirect influence of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, China’s “economic landscape†will likely see five significant changes.
First of all, the economic growth rate will gradually slow down, and local governments' "GDP worship" will gradually fade. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese government will change its past economic development strategy aimed solely at seeking rapid economic growth. High-quality growth, inclusive growth, and green growth will become the three major characteristics of China's economic growth. No longer "guaranteeing eight" as the "iron law" that never changes. Under the influence of changes in the concept of economic growth, the assessment criteria of the central government for local government officials will also shift from purely based on the rate of GDP growth to a comprehensive consideration of the quality of GDP growth, which will lead to a certain degree of change in the mode of extensive local economy in China. The local "investment impulse" economic growth model will gradually end. Under this situation, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, in the past thirty years, the “urban construction sites everywhere†phenomenon in China’s territories will gradually decrease, and the Chinese land that has experienced machine roar for nearly three decades will gradually return. calm.
Second, the economic structure will show the characteristics of consumption-led, and the domestic consumption structure will gradually upgrade. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese economy will get rid of the excessive dependence on the status quo of foreign trade. Through the adjustment of national income distribution and the promotion of urbanization as a means to gradually increase household consumption, the consumption rate is likely to increase to more than 60%, while the consumption rate of residents It will also grow to about 55%, and the contribution of consumption to economic growth will also rise steadily. With the rapid increase in total consumption, China’s consumption structure will further escalate, shifting from “clothing, food, and use†to gradual changes to “live, travel, health, and physicalâ€; consumption of physical products will decline, and The consumption of spiritual products will increase. It can be foreseen that China will become the main market for luxury goods in the world, more and more international brands will appear in the life of Chinese people more and more; and China’s cultural market will also “blanket†growth, Chinese film capture Oscar The probability of a prize is increasing, and the "Hollywood" of the East will soon appear in a central cultural city in China.
Third, the inclusive growth model will benefit farmers and the rural landscape as a whole will undergo major changes. Continuing to pay attention to and resolving the issue of people's livelihood is one of the focuses of the Chinese government during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, and the peasant issue is even more of a "top priority" in this focus. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†regards the overall development of urban and rural areas as an important means to realize the fruits of peasants' sharing of China’s economic development. Rural areas will enjoy the same public services as cities, which will lead to drastic changes in rural areas. For some time in the future, if you see a limousine flying on the Tongcun Highway in China or a farmer holding an Apple iPod reading a novel, you should never doubt your own eyes. This is the future development of rural China. Moreover, it is likely that more urban residents will gradually “return†to rural areas along with the development of modern agriculture and the equalization of basic urban and rural public services. For thousands of years, the huge differences between urban and rural areas will be gradually drifting away from China.
In addition, regional development will be coordinated and the central and western regions will become the new engine of economic growth. Since the financial crisis, affected by the shrinking of foreign trade, the economic growth of the coastal provinces, which is the engine of China's economic tradition, has slipped, while the economic growth of the central and western regions has been “a sudden riseâ€. During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the Chinese government will implement a more balanced regional development policy. The advantages of the production cost will be highlighted in the central and western regions. The industries in the coastal areas will gradually begin to shift to the central and western regions due to cost constraints. The western region will also become a new engine for China’s economic growth. After the central and western regions have become the main driving force of China’s economy in the future, special vocabularies in the specific contexts of “going out to workâ€, “migrant labor boomâ€, “peak of spring transportâ€, and “left-behind children†will become history. Instead, they will be “homecomingâ€. "Entrepreneurship," "labor shortage," "travel abroad," and "in situ creation
Finally, the problems of resources and environment will be eased, and the Chinese economy will approach green growth. China is in the middle stage of industrialization and is moving toward the later stage. At the same time, urbanization is progressing steadily. The characteristics of these two phases determine that the task of energy saving and emission reduction in China is very heavy. However, at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the Central Government explicitly requested that all localities must complete energy-saving and emission-reduction targets and fully demonstrate their resolve to resolve resource and environmental issues. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is likely to increase energy-saving emission reduction targets and increase the number of binding indicators. China is trying to move closer to the green growth model. The Chinese government's unusual attention to resource and environmental issues may have a major impact on the development of domestic heavy chemical industry during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. With the development and support of strategic emerging industries, the development of the overall industry will not be greatly affected. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, we may see in China’s land that cement plants and steel mills that have blossomed in the past will gradually be reduced, and sewage treatment plants and waste treatment plants will continue to increase. However, as far as China's actual development stage is concerned, this kind of control over regional energy-saving and emission reduction is a risky attempt after all. The long-term impact on the Chinese economy is even more difficult to measure.
For China, the "12th Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for economic transformation. Economic development will enter the stage of "optimization of structural adjustment" and "industrial upgrading and innovation." First of all, China's economy will be in a transition period from internal and external imbalances to internal and external balances. The internal and external demand structure will face tremendous changes. Second, China's economy will be in a transition period from a low-cost industrial stage to a high-value-added industrial stage. The overall industrial structure Will face an overall adjustment.
How to Understand the Policy Logic behind the Twelfth Five-Year Plan The main line of China's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will be “Accelerating the transformation of economic development methodsâ€, and the concrete embodiment of this main line during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period is to speed up the economic structure. Strategic adjustment. At the same time, scientific and technological advancement and innovation, safeguarding and improving people's livelihood, building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, and further deepening reforms and transforming open methods will become the four major tasks of economic restructuring.
From the perspective of economic development, there are two key points in China's economic restructuring during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. First of all, China will accelerate the transformation of demand, manifesting itself as a shift in the demand structure, focusing on expanding consumer demand. Within the consumer demand, the rate of decline in household consumption is the fastest, so the adjustment of demand structure will focus on expanding consumer spending. The policy of expanding household consumption will hold two “handsâ€, one is to promote “urbanization†and the other is to adjust the “national income distribution patternâ€. Secondly. It is the transformation of supply that is reflected in the adjustment of the industrial structure. China's industrial structure lags behind in two aspects. One is the emphasis on processing and manufacturing, the imbalance in industrial structure, and the slow development of the modern service industry; the second is that the innovation capability is not strong, the industrial added value is low, and it is difficult to control the global value chain. In this sense, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China’s industrial structure upgrading strategy will begin with the promotion of industrialization and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries.
From the perspective of system reform, during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, with the completion of the "incremental reform", the curtain of China's "stock reform" is about to start. The essence of this is to solve the reform of the overall economic system in an all-round way." The economic stock is unreasonable." Starting from the different aspects of the task of economic restructuring, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, China will regard “creating domestic demand†and “optimizing supply†as two wheels for “stock reformâ€. From the perspective of adjusting the demand structure, two reforms will be focused on: First, deepen the reform of the income distribution system, increase the proportion of workers’ remuneration in initial distribution, increase the proportion of residents’ income in the distribution of national income, and release the medium and low Income class consumer demand. The second is to deepen the reform of the household registration system, speed up the process of converting migrant workers into citizens, deepen the process of urbanization, adjust the dual structure of urban and rural areas, and start the “bipolar†consumer impulse in both urban and rural areas. From the perspective of optimizing the supply structure, we must accelerate two reforms: First, speed up the reform of the monopoly service industry, accelerate the pace of reform in the monopoly industry, increase the introduction of private investment, improve efficiency, and optimize the industrial structure. The adjusted market environment; Second, the reform of the factor price system, especially the resource price system, makes resource prices reflect the degree of resource scarcity, changes the "low-cost" industrial development model, and promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. In addition, the premise of all reforms is the transformation of the government, there is no breakthrough in the transformation of the government, the reform is difficult to deepen, the economic structure is difficult to adjust, and the development method is difficult to change. Therefore, during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the most important aspect of China's reform is to promote the government's transformation from economic construction to public service.
How the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†Will Change China’s Economic Prospects The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will become an important strategic document for China’s economic and social transformation in the history of reform and opening up, and it will be the theme for China’s future development and reform. This plan involves a wide range of transformation strategies and reform measures, which may affect many aspects of China's economic and social development, and thus have a major impact on the overall layout of China's future development. In the next five or ten years, under the direct and indirect influence of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, China’s “economic landscape†will likely see five significant changes.
First of all, the economic growth rate will gradually slow down, and local governments' "GDP worship" will gradually fade. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese government will change its past economic development strategy aimed solely at seeking rapid economic growth. High-quality growth, inclusive growth, and green growth will become the three major characteristics of China's economic growth. No longer "guaranteeing eight" as the "iron law" that never changes. Under the influence of changes in the concept of economic growth, the assessment criteria of the central government for local government officials will also shift from purely based on the rate of GDP growth to a comprehensive consideration of the quality of GDP growth, which will lead to a certain degree of change in the mode of extensive local economy in China. The local "investment impulse" economic growth model will gradually end. Under this situation, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, in the past thirty years, the “urban construction sites everywhere†phenomenon in China’s territories will gradually decrease, and the Chinese land that has experienced machine roar for nearly three decades will gradually return. calm.
Second, the economic structure will show the characteristics of consumption-led, and the domestic consumption structure will gradually upgrade. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese economy will get rid of the excessive dependence on the status quo of foreign trade. Through the adjustment of national income distribution and the promotion of urbanization as a means to gradually increase household consumption, the consumption rate is likely to increase to more than 60%, while the consumption rate of residents It will also grow to about 55%, and the contribution of consumption to economic growth will also rise steadily. With the rapid increase in total consumption, China’s consumption structure will further escalate, shifting from “clothing, food, and use†to gradual changes to “live, travel, health, and physicalâ€; consumption of physical products will decline, and The consumption of spiritual products will increase. It can be foreseen that China will become the main market for luxury goods in the world, more and more international brands will appear in the life of Chinese people more and more; and China’s cultural market will also “blanket†growth, Chinese film capture Oscar The probability of a prize is increasing, and the "Hollywood" of the East will soon appear in a central cultural city in China.
Third, the inclusive growth model will benefit farmers and the rural landscape as a whole will undergo major changes. Continuing to pay attention to and resolving the issue of people's livelihood is one of the focuses of the Chinese government during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, and the peasant issue is even more of a "top priority" in this focus. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†regards the overall development of urban and rural areas as an important means to realize the fruits of peasants' sharing of China’s economic development. Rural areas will enjoy the same public services as cities, which will lead to drastic changes in rural areas. For some time in the future, if you see a limousine flying on the Tongcun Highway in China or a farmer holding an Apple iPod reading a novel, you should never doubt your own eyes. This is the future development of rural China. Moreover, it is likely that more urban residents will gradually “return†to rural areas along with the development of modern agriculture and the equalization of basic urban and rural public services. For thousands of years, the huge differences between urban and rural areas will be gradually drifting away from China.
In addition, regional development will be coordinated and the central and western regions will become the new engine of economic growth. Since the financial crisis, affected by the shrinking of foreign trade, the economic growth of the coastal provinces, which is the engine of China's economic tradition, has slipped, while the economic growth of the central and western regions has been “a sudden riseâ€. During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the Chinese government will implement a more balanced regional development policy. The advantages of the production cost will be highlighted in the central and western regions. The industries in the coastal areas will gradually begin to shift to the central and western regions due to cost constraints. The western region will also become a new engine for China’s economic growth. After the central and western regions have become the main driving force of China’s economy in the future, special vocabularies in the specific contexts of “going out to workâ€, “migrant labor boomâ€, “peak of spring transportâ€, and “left-behind children†will become history. Instead, they will be “homecomingâ€. "Entrepreneurship," "labor shortage," "travel abroad," and "in situ creation
Finally, the problems of resources and environment will be eased, and the Chinese economy will approach green growth. China is in the middle stage of industrialization and is moving toward the later stage. At the same time, urbanization is progressing steadily. The characteristics of these two phases determine that the task of energy saving and emission reduction in China is very heavy. However, at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the Central Government explicitly requested that all localities must complete energy-saving and emission-reduction targets and fully demonstrate their resolve to resolve resource and environmental issues. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is likely to increase energy-saving emission reduction targets and increase the number of binding indicators. China is trying to move closer to the green growth model. The Chinese government's unusual attention to resource and environmental issues may have a major impact on the development of domestic heavy chemical industry during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. With the development and support of strategic emerging industries, the development of the overall industry will not be greatly affected. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, we may see in China’s land that cement plants and steel mills that have blossomed in the past will gradually be reduced, and sewage treatment plants and waste treatment plants will continue to increase. However, as far as China's actual development stage is concerned, this kind of control over regional energy-saving and emission reduction is a risky attempt after all. The long-term impact on the Chinese economy is even more difficult to measure.
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