Observing the perspectives of the birth of the economy: Seven major issues facing the energy industry
More than a dozen experts from the China Energy Research Association and senior officials from state-owned large-scale energy companies recently discussed in Xinjiang that the energy industry in China will face seven major problems such as lack of supply, severe waste, strong demand, and structural malformations.
High energy consumption has made energy supply worse. The expansion of China's high-energy-consuming industries has been alarming since 2002. The total domestic primary energy production has only increased by 11%, of which crude oil has only increased by 1.8%. In Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, energy-consuming industrial parks in western energy production areas can be seen everywhere.
Zhang Shourong, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that in recent years, developed countries have imposed strict access systems on energy-intensive projects in terms of energy consumption, environmental protection, and taxation, forcing the industry to shift to China with a low threshold, and the shortage of domestic energy supplies has become worse.
The use of low efficiency, serious energy waste At present, China's energy efficiency is only 34%, equivalent to the level of developed countries 20 years ago, a difference of 10 percentage points. Each year, the domestic industrial sector consumes 200 million to 300 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about one-fifth of the country’s total energy consumption.
Bai Hong, deputy director of the Shaanxi Provincial Coal Industry Bureau, said that according to the requirements of the National Coal Industry Technical Specification, the recovery rate of a mine mining area should not be less than 75%, but the coal recovery rate in Shaanxi is less than 30%. Wu Jiachun, deputy director of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Coal Industry Administration, also stated that the average recovery rate of local township coal mines is only 10% to 15%, and only 30% of state-owned local coal mines.
The process of urbanization is accelerating and the energy demand space is large The vice president and researcher of the China Energy Research Institute Bao Yunyun said that in the first 20 years of this century, the urbanization process in China has been greatly accelerated, and urban infrastructure has caused a large amount of energy consumption such as steel, cement, and electricity to be consumed. Rapid growth.
Energy supply structure imbalance, long-term dependence on coal China's energy reserves have the characteristics of 'more coal, less oil, less gas'. Coal accounts for 92%, oil accounts for 2.9%, and natural gas accounts for only 0.2%. In 2004, coal accounted for over 67% of the primary energy mix. China's energy production and consumption will be dominated by coal for a long time to come. Even if various measures are taken to develop oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy, it will be difficult to reduce the proportion of coal consumption.
Bao Yunxuan believes that by 2050 the proportion of domestic coal in total energy will not be less than 50%, and it is very difficult to solve the shortage problem with diversified supply.
Energy distribution is uneven, 'production and marketing' distance is far away. China's energy is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Guizhou. These five provinces and regions together account for 83% of the country's total energy resources, while the economically developed East and South China. Less than 5%, conventional energy must be transported over long distances of more than 3,000 kilometers to reach the energy use center. This not only makes it difficult to rationally allocate energy, but also causes significant waste of energy during transportation.
Energy development causes severe environmental pollution The expansion of the high-energy-consuming industries and the coal-based production model have caused serious 'internal injuries' to the ecological environment in the country, especially in energy-producing areas. According to data provided by Bao Yunyu, in 2003, 50% of the 40 monitored cities in the country were mildly and heavily polluted; nearly 30% of the country’s land was corroded by acid rain, and 30% of the water sources were heavily polluted; the area of ​​desertified land was expanded to 260. Ten thousand square kilometers; metal tailings grow at a rate of 500 million tons per year.
Petroleum safety is seriously threatened According to the current proven reserves of oil and production capacity of major oil fields, experts believe that the cap of domestic crude oil production in the next few years will be 180 million to 200 million tons/year, and China’s oil consumption in 2020 It will reach 500 million tons, and 300 million tons will have to rely on imports. The degree of foreign dependence will exceed 60%, which is higher than the current level of 50% in the United States. Xu Daxuan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, called on the state to use the law and market leverage to implement energy conservation and energy conservation, and at the same time promote the substitution of renewable energy, nuclear energy, and other conventional energy, and maintain national oil security.
High energy consumption has made energy supply worse. The expansion of China's high-energy-consuming industries has been alarming since 2002. The total domestic primary energy production has only increased by 11%, of which crude oil has only increased by 1.8%. In Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, energy-consuming industrial parks in western energy production areas can be seen everywhere.
Zhang Shourong, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that in recent years, developed countries have imposed strict access systems on energy-intensive projects in terms of energy consumption, environmental protection, and taxation, forcing the industry to shift to China with a low threshold, and the shortage of domestic energy supplies has become worse.
The use of low efficiency, serious energy waste At present, China's energy efficiency is only 34%, equivalent to the level of developed countries 20 years ago, a difference of 10 percentage points. Each year, the domestic industrial sector consumes 200 million to 300 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about one-fifth of the country’s total energy consumption.
Bai Hong, deputy director of the Shaanxi Provincial Coal Industry Bureau, said that according to the requirements of the National Coal Industry Technical Specification, the recovery rate of a mine mining area should not be less than 75%, but the coal recovery rate in Shaanxi is less than 30%. Wu Jiachun, deputy director of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Coal Industry Administration, also stated that the average recovery rate of local township coal mines is only 10% to 15%, and only 30% of state-owned local coal mines.
The process of urbanization is accelerating and the energy demand space is large The vice president and researcher of the China Energy Research Institute Bao Yunyun said that in the first 20 years of this century, the urbanization process in China has been greatly accelerated, and urban infrastructure has caused a large amount of energy consumption such as steel, cement, and electricity to be consumed. Rapid growth.
Energy supply structure imbalance, long-term dependence on coal China's energy reserves have the characteristics of 'more coal, less oil, less gas'. Coal accounts for 92%, oil accounts for 2.9%, and natural gas accounts for only 0.2%. In 2004, coal accounted for over 67% of the primary energy mix. China's energy production and consumption will be dominated by coal for a long time to come. Even if various measures are taken to develop oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy, it will be difficult to reduce the proportion of coal consumption.
Bao Yunxuan believes that by 2050 the proportion of domestic coal in total energy will not be less than 50%, and it is very difficult to solve the shortage problem with diversified supply.
Energy distribution is uneven, 'production and marketing' distance is far away. China's energy is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Guizhou. These five provinces and regions together account for 83% of the country's total energy resources, while the economically developed East and South China. Less than 5%, conventional energy must be transported over long distances of more than 3,000 kilometers to reach the energy use center. This not only makes it difficult to rationally allocate energy, but also causes significant waste of energy during transportation.
Energy development causes severe environmental pollution The expansion of the high-energy-consuming industries and the coal-based production model have caused serious 'internal injuries' to the ecological environment in the country, especially in energy-producing areas. According to data provided by Bao Yunyu, in 2003, 50% of the 40 monitored cities in the country were mildly and heavily polluted; nearly 30% of the country’s land was corroded by acid rain, and 30% of the water sources were heavily polluted; the area of ​​desertified land was expanded to 260. Ten thousand square kilometers; metal tailings grow at a rate of 500 million tons per year.
Petroleum safety is seriously threatened According to the current proven reserves of oil and production capacity of major oil fields, experts believe that the cap of domestic crude oil production in the next few years will be 180 million to 200 million tons/year, and China’s oil consumption in 2020 It will reach 500 million tons, and 300 million tons will have to rely on imports. The degree of foreign dependence will exceed 60%, which is higher than the current level of 50% in the United States. Xu Daxuan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, called on the state to use the law and market leverage to implement energy conservation and energy conservation, and at the same time promote the substitution of renewable energy, nuclear energy, and other conventional energy, and maintain national oil security.