How can the "decision of the Jedi" be reduced when the manufacturing investment return rate drops?
"Since this year, private investment and manufacturing investment have continued to decline, and market growth in endogenous investment has been weak. Downside pressure on investment cannot be ignored." said Xu Kunlin, deputy secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the investment department.
Let's look at a set of data: In the first half of this year, the growth rate of private investment in the country was only 2.8%, and the growth rate fell 1.1% from January to May, 8.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the same period of last year and 2.7 points lower than the entire year of 2015. percentage point.
The manufacturing investment amounted to RMB 8,226.1 billion, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling by 1.3 percentage points from January to May and down 6.4 percentage points from the same period of last year. Affected by the lack of market demand and other factors, the growth rate of investment in most industries in the manufacturing industry generally declined, and the growth rate of investment in 21 sectors in 31 major manufacturing industries declined from January to May.
Private investment is a fundamental purpose of profit. Only when the project has a reasonable return expectation will the company invest. Therefore, private investment reflects the market's real investment willingness and is the endogenous investment demand of the economy. This kind of profit-constrained investment demand is often an effective investment demand.
The decline in the rate of return on investment in manufacturing since 2012 has directly led to a slowdown in investment trends. Private investment has been highly concentrated in the manufacturing and real estate industries for a long time, and manufacturing investment accounts for about half of private investment. Therefore, the decline in private investment actually reflects a sharp drop in the willingness to invest in manufacturing. There are many reasons for this, but the most fundamental and direct cause is the decline in the return on investment in manufacturing.
Why the return on investment in manufacturing will fall?
The rate of return on investment in manufacturing affects the vitality of private investment. Why does the rate of return on manufacturing decline?
On the one hand, manufacturing profits are getting thinner and thinner. With the double squeeze of rising costs and competition in the international market, the profitability of China's manufacturing industry continues to decline. Factors such as aging population and upgrading of social consumption also have a profound impact on manufacturing costs and profits. Last year, the profit rate of industrial enterprises fell to about 5%, which is the lowest point in recent years. At the same time, the manufacturing industry is also facing a serious problem of overcapacity, especially in the iron and steel industry, automotive industry, home appliance industry and wind power equipment, solar photovoltaic power generation polysilicon and other industries. It can be said that the current overcapacity has directly caused the manufacturing companies to "destock" pressure to accumulate. The seriousness of the problem lies in the fact that, in the event of high stocks, the company still has to bring products to the market and the receivables increase greatly, which in turn affects the capital flow and profits of the company.
The overcapacity ratio of traditional industries On the other hand, the "scissors gap" between the rate of return on manufacturing and the rate of return on other industries is increasing. For example, the profit margins of industries such as energy, finance, and transportation are always at a high level. Under such circumstances, private capital began to “escape†the manufacturing industry, and a large amount of capital “goes out of the realâ€, and is transferred to the stock market, property market and futures market, etc., in pursuit of higher return on capital.
How can Guangdong stimulate the vitality of manufacturing investment?
Are there other ways to increase private investment? Let civil investment be transferred to other industries. It is indeed possible to get a share from this. But it also brought a new problem. China’s private investment accounted for 80% of the manufacturing industry. If private investment shifts, how can the remaining space be covered and who will do the manufacturing industry?
Under the conditions of an open economy, if private capital is withdrawn from the manufacturing industry on a large scale, the space will be occupied by foreign-funded enterprises, and it will be extremely difficult to resume its own manufacturing industry. Facts have proved that the economies that are not supported by the manufacturing industry are very fragile. Allowing private investment to enter other industries, the manufacturing industry's capital is gradually transferred to other industries, which is beneficial to the short-term expansion of private capital, but it will interrupt the continuous process of upgrading and transformation of the manufacturing industry, and private investment “abandoned the position†for the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. It is devastating.
Therefore, the expansion of non-governmental investment is fundamentally in the manufacturing industry. To fundamentally solve the problem of the decline in the rate of return on investment in manufacturing, it is necessary to promote structural reform and upgrade. On August 3, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document that will fully stimulate the vitality of manufacturing investment, including supporting technological transformation of traditional industrial enterprises, actively defusing and transferring excess production capacity, unswervingly reducing the cost of various enterprises, and accelerating the development of new kinetic energy to develop a new economy Four aspects.
Let's look at a set of data: In the first half of this year, the growth rate of private investment in the country was only 2.8%, and the growth rate fell 1.1% from January to May, 8.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the same period of last year and 2.7 points lower than the entire year of 2015. percentage point.
The manufacturing investment amounted to RMB 8,226.1 billion, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling by 1.3 percentage points from January to May and down 6.4 percentage points from the same period of last year. Affected by the lack of market demand and other factors, the growth rate of investment in most industries in the manufacturing industry generally declined, and the growth rate of investment in 21 sectors in 31 major manufacturing industries declined from January to May.
Private investment is a fundamental purpose of profit. Only when the project has a reasonable return expectation will the company invest. Therefore, private investment reflects the market's real investment willingness and is the endogenous investment demand of the economy. This kind of profit-constrained investment demand is often an effective investment demand.
The decline in the rate of return on investment in manufacturing since 2012 has directly led to a slowdown in investment trends. Private investment has been highly concentrated in the manufacturing and real estate industries for a long time, and manufacturing investment accounts for about half of private investment. Therefore, the decline in private investment actually reflects a sharp drop in the willingness to invest in manufacturing. There are many reasons for this, but the most fundamental and direct cause is the decline in the return on investment in manufacturing.
Why the return on investment in manufacturing will fall?
The rate of return on investment in manufacturing affects the vitality of private investment. Why does the rate of return on manufacturing decline?
On the one hand, manufacturing profits are getting thinner and thinner. With the double squeeze of rising costs and competition in the international market, the profitability of China's manufacturing industry continues to decline. Factors such as aging population and upgrading of social consumption also have a profound impact on manufacturing costs and profits. Last year, the profit rate of industrial enterprises fell to about 5%, which is the lowest point in recent years. At the same time, the manufacturing industry is also facing a serious problem of overcapacity, especially in the iron and steel industry, automotive industry, home appliance industry and wind power equipment, solar photovoltaic power generation polysilicon and other industries. It can be said that the current overcapacity has directly caused the manufacturing companies to "destock" pressure to accumulate. The seriousness of the problem lies in the fact that, in the event of high stocks, the company still has to bring products to the market and the receivables increase greatly, which in turn affects the capital flow and profits of the company.
The overcapacity ratio of traditional industries On the other hand, the "scissors gap" between the rate of return on manufacturing and the rate of return on other industries is increasing. For example, the profit margins of industries such as energy, finance, and transportation are always at a high level. Under such circumstances, private capital began to “escape†the manufacturing industry, and a large amount of capital “goes out of the realâ€, and is transferred to the stock market, property market and futures market, etc., in pursuit of higher return on capital.
How can Guangdong stimulate the vitality of manufacturing investment?
Are there other ways to increase private investment? Let civil investment be transferred to other industries. It is indeed possible to get a share from this. But it also brought a new problem. China’s private investment accounted for 80% of the manufacturing industry. If private investment shifts, how can the remaining space be covered and who will do the manufacturing industry?
Under the conditions of an open economy, if private capital is withdrawn from the manufacturing industry on a large scale, the space will be occupied by foreign-funded enterprises, and it will be extremely difficult to resume its own manufacturing industry. Facts have proved that the economies that are not supported by the manufacturing industry are very fragile. Allowing private investment to enter other industries, the manufacturing industry's capital is gradually transferred to other industries, which is beneficial to the short-term expansion of private capital, but it will interrupt the continuous process of upgrading and transformation of the manufacturing industry, and private investment “abandoned the position†for the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. It is devastating.
Therefore, the expansion of non-governmental investment is fundamentally in the manufacturing industry. To fundamentally solve the problem of the decline in the rate of return on investment in manufacturing, it is necessary to promote structural reform and upgrade. On August 3, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document that will fully stimulate the vitality of manufacturing investment, including supporting technological transformation of traditional industrial enterprises, actively defusing and transferring excess production capacity, unswervingly reducing the cost of various enterprises, and accelerating the development of new kinetic energy to develop a new economy Four aspects.
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