Heavy-duty truck market in 2009 will have a weaker demand for diesel engines or will decline
The market trend of vehicle diesel engines is mainly determined by the commercial vehicle market. In the market of commercial vehicle subdivision models, the volatility of other models is relatively small, except for the fact that the heavy trucks increase or decrease the fluctuation range in recent years. And stable, generally not more than 15%. Therefore, in a sense, the market trend of heavy trucks determines the trend of the automotive diesel engine market.
As we all know, due to the outbreak and spread of the financial crisis, the decline in the national automobile consumption capacity, coupled with the sharp decline in the demand of China's auto exporting countries and other reasons, in 2009 China's auto market will usher in the most difficult years in the past 56 years, of which the heavy truck industry The situation will be even more severe. In addition to the deceleration of the economy and the unfavorable factors such as the increase in the cost of implementing heavy trucks in the country, the more important disadvantage is that the heavy truck market has become saturated. From 2005 to 2007, China’s heavy trucks continued to grow rapidly for three years. Although it is inextricably linked with the rapid development of the national economy, due to the high-speed launch of products in the past three years, especially the overdraft consumption in the first half of 2008, the domestic heavy truck market has become saturated. .
Although the Chinese government has introduced a series of new policies for "combination boxing" in the recent half of the year, these new policies are mainly aimed at passenger cars and light vehicles, and have only limited driving effect on the counterweight and medium-sized vehicle markets.
Therefore, the author estimates that the overall demand for the heavy-duty truck market in 2009 is likely to be negative, but the negative growth rate will not be too high and should be within -20%. If comprehensive consideration is taken, the light, micro-card market and bus market will grow at a flat rate or slightly increase from 2008 in 2009, and the overall forecast for the 2009 automotive diesel engine market will eventually decline slightly. The specific rate of decline should not exceed 8%.
If we look at the trend from a monthly basis, since the vehicle diesel engine market in 2008 was the "fire" in the first five months and the "ice" in the next seven months, sales in the first five months of 2009 will be undoubtedly lower than in the previous five months; The year-on-year may show a trend of rising in some months and falling in some months. If we look at the trend from the month-on-month, we believe that in 2009, the 2 trillion yuan investment project will continue to honor the start of construction, heavy-duty truck and automotive diesel engine market is expected to drop in the beginning in 2009, that is, before the low and high, the second half of sales greater than the first half Sales are more likely.
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