· In the second half of the year, the auto market may continue to be sluggish. The July auto inventory index is still above the warning line.

China Automobile Dealers Association recently released the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Report". According to the report, the dealer inventory warning index for July was 52.5%, down 5.7 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the warning line (the warning line is bounded by 50%).

In the first half of this year, it was called the car market in the industry in the last ten years. Some experts said that the future trend of the auto market is not optimistic, and the downturn in the first half of the year may continue into the second half.

Inventory warning accompanied by the worst start

According to the latest statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile production and sales has slowed down, and the growth rate of passenger car production and sales has decreased significantly year-on-year. From January to June, the growth rate of automobile production and sales continued to be lower than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year were lower than the overall 1.4 and 2.2 percentage points of the car.

In addition to the SUV still growing, the production and sales of cars, MPVs and crossover passenger cars continued to decline. Among them, the production and sales of cars decreased by 1.8% and 3.2% respectively, MPV production and sales decreased by 12.8% and 15.8% respectively, and the production and sales of cross-type passenger cars decreased by 32.7% and 25.3% respectively.

It is worth noting that such data was obtained in the case of a rebound in automobile production and sales data in May and June. In the first four months of this year, the production and sales of the automobile market were even more sluggish.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said that the generalized passenger car fell into negative growth in the first half of this year, which also made the first half of this year the worst performance in the first half of this century.

Parallel to the sluggish sales is an increase in inventory. In the first half of the year, the inventory of auto industry dealers has been at a high level. According to the data, the dealer inventory warning index in June was as high as 60%. The reason is that some car companies failed to complete the half-year target in June, and increased the task of dealers to pick up the car. In addition, June is the traditional off-season of the car market, and the market demand has dropped, resulting in an increase in inventory. With the arrival of the off-season in the auto market, dealers began to control the inventory level, which made the inventory index eased. However, the inventory index in July was still above the warning line, indicating that the dealer inventory pressure is relatively large at this stage.

Fan Yu, director of the Industry Coordination Department of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that from the latest survey data in July, the situation is still not very optimistic. July and August are the traditional off-seasons of the auto market. Coupled with extreme weather in some places, the sales of new cars have been affected to some extent, and the future auto market is not optimistic, and the sales price of automobiles will further decline.

Many factors lead to lower market conditions

The car sales data for the first half of this year showed that since January, the domestic auto market has been in a state of cooling. Until May, the auto market began to pick up again. In June, passenger car sales began to show positive growth.

Analysis of the reasons, on the one hand, with the purchase tax halved and new energy subsidies retreat, part of this year's sales were overdrawn in advance last year. On the other hand, the auto industry developed well in the same period last year, with a high base, which led to poor performance in the first half of this year. In addition, the price increase of coal, steel and nonferrous metals in the upstream of the auto industry this year and the terminal demand are relatively weak, resulting in low profit in the intermediate manufacturing and retail sectors, and the consumption power is relatively slow.

From the product point of view, the sales volume of MPV in the first half of the year was only 1.0105 million units, down 15.8% year-on-year, which was the biggest drop in the three major segments, and this is also an important reason for the decline of the auto market this year.

From the perspective of car companies, most of the car sales plans for the first half of this year are difficult to complete. According to incomplete statistics, only a small number of car companies have completed their targets in the first half of the year, and a considerable number of car companies have completed less than 40%.

At the same time, new energy vehicles sold a total of 195,000 units in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. However, for the target of 700,000 units sold at the beginning of the year, the current completion rate is less than one-third.

With a series of "scams" incidents gradually subsided, China's new energy vehicle industry began to enter a stable development period, the first half of the new energy vehicle monthly sales growth is exemplified. However, there is still a big gap between the sales volume of less than 200,000 vehicles in the first half of the year and the annual target of 700,000 vehicles. This year, new energy vehicles are also facing the influence of “30,000 kilometers” and other factors, and it will be difficult to see a major sales explosion in the second half of the year. Case.

More importantly, overcapacity in the automotive industry is also an important cause of the downturn in the auto market. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, the number of new and modified vehicles exceeded 300, of which SUVs and new energy vehicles accounted for the majority, and homogenization was serious.

The second half of the car market is not optimistic

For the Chinese auto market, whether it can achieve 5% growth throughout the year, the performance in the second half is crucial. From the current situation, the auto market in the second half of the year is not optimistic.

The relevant person in charge of the China Automobile Dealers Association said that the overall inventory pressure in the automotive market is still relatively large. In July and August, the traditional car market is off-season, and extreme weather such as high temperatures and heavy rains are likely to affect the overall auto market. Next, although there is a “Golden September and Silver 10” pull, but time is limited, the entire third quarter of the car market is likely to bottom out. Although there may be a wave of new consumer demand in the auto market in the fourth quarter, the overall trend of “micro-growth” in the auto market in the second half of the year is still difficult to break through.

Car dealers also hold the same view on the future car market. Some dealers said that the operating situation in August will be worse than that in July, and in order to welcome the arrival of “Golden September and Silver 10”, it is expected that the wholesale volume of manufacturers will increase, which will increase the inventory pressure of dealers.

Cui Dongshu said that in the second half of the year, the driving force for the growth of automobile sales is not strong, and it is difficult for the market to undergo a fundamental change, and there may even be expectations for a downward adjustment.

However, some experts said that the domestic auto market in the second half of the year is not without highlights. This year's purchase tax preferential policy will expire at the end of the year. According to the experience of the previous round of purchase tax preferential policies, the auto market may release a wave of demand. In addition, the market share of self-owned brand cars in the second half of the year will be further enhanced, and market performance is expected.

Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that at present, the endogenous power of the automobile industry is still there, and the demand growth brought about by the rapid popularization of the automobile society will continue to be maintained. In addition, due to policy factors overdraft sales last year, the past six months have been digested, and the momentum of market growth in the second half is still in place, these factors will continue to stimulate the market.

Shi Jianhua expects that nearly 100 models will be launched in the second half of the year. These new vehicles are more complete in configuration and more cost-effective, which will play a certain role in driving the domestic auto market. At the same time, many private cars have been driving for more than five or six years, and the domestic auto market has entered the peak of redemption, which is also a positive factor driving the growth of the auto market in the second half of the year.

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